World Energy Outlook 2011

In the IEO2011 Reference case, which does not incorporate prospective legislation or policies that might affect energy markets, world marketed energy consumption grows by 53 percent from 2008 to 2035. Total world energy use rises from 505 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2008 to 619 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and 770 quadrillion Btu in 2035 (Figure 1). Much of the growth in energy consumption occurs in countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (non-OECD nations)2 where demand is driven by strong long-term economic growth. Energy use in non-OECD nations increases by 85 percent in the Reference case, as compared with an increase of 18 percent for the OECD economies

World Energy Consumption, 1990- 2035 (quadrillion Btu), source: eia.gov

Although the world continues to recover from the 2008-2009 global recession, the recovery is uneven. In advanced economies, recovery has been slow in comparison with recoveries from past recessions. Unemployment is still high among the advanced economies, and real estate markets and household income growth remain weak. Debt levels in a number of small economies of the European Union—Greece, Ireland, and Portugal—required European Union intervention to avert defaults. Concerns about fiscal sustainability and financial turbulence suggest that economic recovery in the OECD countries will not be accompanied by the higher growth rates associated with past recoveries. In contrast, growth remains high in many emerging economies, in part driven by strong capital inflows and high commodity prices; however, inflation pressures remain a particular concern, along with the need to rebalance external trade in key developing economies.

Beyond the pace and timing of the world’s economic recovery, other events have compounded the uncertainty associated with this year’s energy outlook. Oil prices rose in 2010 as a result of growing demand associated with signs of economic recovery and a lack of a sufficient supply response. Prices were driven even higher at the end of 2010 and into 2011 as social and political unrest unfolded in several Middle Eastern and African economies. Oil prices increased from about $82 per barrel3 at the end of November 2010 to more than $112 per barrel in day trading on April 8, 2011. The impacts of quickly rising prices and possible regional supply disruptions add substantial uncertainty to the near-term outlook. In 2011, the price of light sweet crude oil in the United States (in real 2009 dollars) is expected to average $100 per barrel, and with prices expected to continue increasing in the long term, the price reaches $108 per barrel in 2020 and $125 per barrel in 2035 in the IEO2011 Reference case.

The aftermath of the devastating earthquake and tsunami that struck northeastern Japan on March 11, 2011—which resulted in extensive loss of life and infrastructure damage, including severe damage to several nuclear reactors at Fukushima Daiichi—provides another major source of uncertainty in IEO2011. The near-term outlook for Japan’s economy is lower than the already sluggish growth that was projected before the events, but the impact on the rest of Asia and on world economic health as a whole probably will be relatively small, given that Japan has not been a major factor in regional economic growth in recent years. However, the event may have more profound implications for the future of world nuclear power. The IEO2011 projections do not reflect the possible ramifications of Fukushima for the long-term global development of nuclear power or the policies that some countries have already adopted in its aftermath with respect to the continued operation of existing nuclear plants. more

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Bangkok Car Free Day this Sunday to raise awareness of global warming

Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) will be hosting Bangkok Car Free Day 2011 this Sunday with an aim to encourage the use of public transportation and reduce environmental impact from cars.

Deputy Bangkok Governor Mr. Theerachon Manomaipiboon presided over the launching of ‘Bangkok Car Free Day 2011’ today to raise the awareness of the global warming and encourage people to leave their cars at home and instead travel by public transportation or ride a bicycle on Sunday.

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Google’s Electricity consumption

Internet search giant Google says that it consumed about 2.26 billion kilowatt hours of electricity last year, equal to the energy used in 200,000 homes. But while that represents an enormous amount of energy, Google says the services supported by its expanding data centers reduce energy use globally and allow users to improve their own energy efficiency. In its official blog, the company said the typical user of Google’s products — including search, Gmail, and YouTube — uses about 180 watt-hours monthly accessing those services, or less than “a light left on for three hours.” It’s the first time Google has shared information on its energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, an attempt to be more transparent as it expands its data center operations worldwide — including a new center in Finland — and promotes its cloud-based data services. The company also disclosed that it emitted about 1.46 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2010, but said that about one-quarter of its electricity came from renewable energy sources. The company also buys carbon offsets for its emissions.

New solar-powered process removes CO2 from the air and stores it as solid carbon

The alarming rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has led a numerous proposals on how to capture and store CO2 in order to mitigate the damaging emissions from fossil fuels. Popular proposals, some already being tested on a large scale, involve carbon sequestration and subsequent storage in geological formations (geo-sequestration). Other ideas revolve around recycling captured carbon dioxide, for instance by converting it into hydrocarbons that can be re-used to make fuel or plastics. While these solutions would result in removing some carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, their disadvantages are that most of them are expensive, technologically challenging, or energy-intensive.
Researchers have now presented the first experimental evidence of a new solar conversion process, combining electronic and chemical pathways, for carbon dioxide capture in what could become a revolutionary approach to remove and recycle CO2 from the atmosphere on a large scale. Rather than trying to sequester or hide away excess carbon dioxide, this new method allows it to be stored as solid carbon or converted in useful products ranging from plastics to synthetic jet fuel.
“The STEP (Solar Thermal Electrochemical Photo) process proactively converts anthropogenic carbon dioxide generated in burning fossil fuels, as well as eliminates carbon dioxide emissions associated with the generation of metals and bleach,” Stuart Licht, a professor in the Department of Chemistry and Solar Institute at George Washington University, explains to Nanowerk. “Our new STEP carbon capture process is the culmination of over 20 years of ongoing research, starting with developing solar energy to drive chemical, rather than only electronic, energy (“A description of energy conversion in photoelectrochemical solar cells”). In 2003, we set the theoretical basis that solar visible and solar thermal sunlight will provide a synergistic enhancement of solar energy conversion efficiency, and in 2009 the theoretical basis for STEP carbon capture (“STEP Generation of Energetic Molecules: A Solar Chemical Process to End Anthropogenic Global Warming”).”

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Climate scientists suggest geoengineering approach with engineered nanoparticles

There may be better ways to engineer the planet’s climate to prevent dangerous global warming than mimicking volcanoes, a University of Calgary climate scientist says in two new studies.

“Releasing engineered nano-sized disks, or sulphuric acid in a condensable vapour above the Earth, are two novel approaches. These approaches offer advantages over simply putting sulphur dioxide gas into the atmosphere,” says David Keith, a director in the Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy and a Schulich School of Engineering professor.

Keith, a global leader in investigating this topic, says that geoengineering, or engineering the climate on a global scale, is an imperfect science. “It cannot offset the risks that come from increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. If we don’t halt man-made CO2 emissions, no amount of climate engineering can eliminate the problems – massive emissions reductions are still necessary.” Nevertheless, Keith believes that research on geoengineering technologies,their effectiveness and environmental impacts needs to be expanded.
“I think the stakes are simply too high at this point to think that ignorance is a good policy.”

Keith suggests two novel geoengineering approaches–’levitating’ engineered nano-particles, and the airborne release of sulphuric acid–in two newly published studies. One study was authored by Keith alone, and the other with scientists in Canada, the U.S. and Switzerland.

Scientists investigating geoengineering have so far looked mainly at injecting sulphur dioxide into the upper atmosphere. This approach imitates the way volcanoes create sulphuric acid aerosols, or sulphates, that will reflect solar radiation back into space – thereby cooling the planet’s surface. Keith says that sulphates are blunt instruments for climate engineering. It’s very difficult to achieve the optimum distribution and size of the aerosols in the atmosphere to reflect the most solar radiation and get the maximum cooling benefit.

One advantage of using sulphates is that scientists have some understanding of their effects in the atmosphere because of emissions from volcanoes such as Mt. Pinatubo, he adds. “A downside of both these new ideas is they would do something that nature has never seen before. It’s easier to think of new ideas than to understand their effectiveness and environmental risks,” says Keith.

In his study–published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a top-ranked international science journal–Keith describes a new class of engineered nano-particles that might be used to offset global warming more efficiently, and with fewer negative side effects, than using sulphates.
According to Keith, the distribution of engineered nano-particles above the Earth could be more controlled and less likely to harm the planet’s protective ozone layer.
Sulphates also have unwanted side-effects, ranging from reducing the electricity output from certain solar power systems, to speeding up the chemical process that breaks down the ozone layer.
Engineered nano-particles could be designed as thin disks and built with electric or magnetic materials that would enable them to be levitated or oriented in the atmosphere to reflect the most solar radiation.
It may also be possible to control the position of particles above the Earth. In theory, the particles might be engineered to drift toward Earth’s poles, to reduce solar radiation in polar regions and counter the melting of ice that speeds up polar warming–known as the ice-albedo feedback.
“Such an ability might be relevant in the event that warming triggers rapid deglaciation,” Keith’s study says.
“Engineered nano-particles would first need to be tested in laboratories, with only short-lived particles initially deployed in the atmosphere so any effects could be easily reversible,” says Keith.
Research would also be needed to determine whether such nano-particles could be effectively distributed, given the complex interplay of forces in the atmosphere, and how much cooling might be achieved at the planet’s surface.
It is also unknown whether the amount of particles needed–about 1 trillion kilograms per year or 10 million tonnes over 10 years–could be manufactured and deployed at a reasonable cost.
However, Keith notes another study, which looked at the cost of putting natural sulphates into the stratosphere.
“You could manipulate the Earth’s climate at large scale for a cost that’s of the order of $1 billion a year. It sounds like a lot of money, but compared to the costs of managing other environmental problems or climate change, that is peanuts.”
“This is not an argument to do it, only an indication that risk, not cost, will be the deciding issue,” he adds.
In a separate new study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, Keith and international scientists describe another geoengineering approach that may also offer advantages over injecting sulphur dioxide gas.
Releasing sulphuric acid, or another condensable vapour, from an aircraft would give better control of particle size. The study says this would reflect more solar radiation back into space, while using fewer particles overall and reducing unwanted heating in the lower stratosphere.
The study included computer modeling that showed that the sulphuric acid would quickly condense in a plume, forming smaller particles that would last longer in the stratosphere and be more effective in reflecting solar radiation than the large sulphates formed from sulphur dioxide gas.
Keith stresses that whether geoengineering technology is ever used, it shouldn’t be seen as a reason not to reduce man-made greenhouse gas emissions now accumulating in the atmosphere.
“Seat belts reduce the risk of being injured in accidents. But having a seat belt doesn’t mean you should drive drunk at 100 miles an hour,” he says

International effort to drain dangerous Bhutan lake underlines costs and risks of climate change

Thorthormi Tsho is a glacial lake perched precariously at 4428 metres above sea level in the remote Lunana area of northern Bhutan Rated as one of Bhutan’s likeliest future catastrophes, a breach and outburst flood through Thorthormi Tsho’s unstable moraine walls would most likely spill into the also vulnerable Raphsthreng Tsho 80 metres below, with the combined flood suddenly releasing up to 53 million cubic metres of water and debris into the upper catchment of the Po Chu river.

The first phase of an international project to reduce the risk to a Bhutan valley from the threatening bursting of a growing and increasingly unstable glacial lake is emphasising the huge costs of climate change adaptation in the Himalayas.

In a valley still bearing the scars of a just one third as large 1994 Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) which took more than 20 lives and devastated villages and wrecked transport and power facilities, the prospect is frightening.

Brazil sets example on halting forest loss

The recent announcement by Brazil – one of the world’s top emitters of greenhouse gases from deforestation – that it is adopting new emissions reduction targets could help steer negotiators in Copenhagen toward a stronger climate change deal.

Brazil’s top environment ministers said late last week the country is committing to an emission reduction target of between 36.1 and 38.9 percent by 2020. Brazil announced those figures only a day after saying new data showed the lowest deforestation rates in the Amazon in the past 21 years.

The new commitment can help unblock and steer climate negotiations toward a new global agreement in Copenhagen, which will be considered next month, said WWF-Brazil CEO Denise Hamú.

“As Brazil announces these figures, it moves from a situation where it merely holds developed countries to account to a situation where it can be a role model in the establishment of a new low-carbon development model for the world,” Hamú said.

“It should be noted, however, that the data needs to be more detailed,” she said. “We are not sure which baseline scenario was used, that is, how the Brazilian government estimated Brazil’s emission growth trends by the end of the next decade. Neither do we know how we will reach those targets.”

“No detailed information is available on all actions across the various industries and on our low-carbon plan of action. It is fundamental that all government policies be consistent with the announcement made today,” Hamú said.

As far as international climate negotiations are concerned, Brazil now has a more legitimate case to demand a clearer financial support commitment from the developed nations for the establishment of adequate actions to adapt to the effects of global warming, according to WWF.

Data released by the Brazilian government earlier this month showed that the deforestation rate in the Amazon fell between August 2008 and July 2009. Overall, the deforested region is a 45 percent smaller than Amazon land cleared the previous year, or between August 2007 and July 2008.

This is the lowest rate of deforestation in the Amazon since record-keeping began in 2000, and down from a high of more than 27,000 square kms in 2004.

However, deforestation also must be reduced in other damaged forest areas in Brazil, such as in the Cerrado, according to WWF:

Despite conservation efforts, global deforestation continues at an alarming rate – 13 million hectares per year, or 36 football fields a minute. It generates almost 20 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and halting forest loss has been identified as one of the most cost-effective ways to keep the world out of the danger zone of runaway climate change.

EU optimistic on climate deal after Brazil pledge

Brazil’s pledge to cut climate-warming emissions to 1994 levels over the next decade could help lead to a breakthrough at global climate talks next month, the head of the EU’s executive body said on Saturday.

“This is a potentially decisive step to achieve a global deal in Copenhagen in December and to succeed in the fight against climate change,” Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, said.

The climate talks in Copenhagen aim to hammer out a new deal for battling global warming after the current Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.

Brazil said on Friday it would take its emissions back to as low as 1994 levels of 1.7 billion tonnes — a cut of between 36.1 percent and 38.9 percent from projected 2020 levels.

Among the world’s biggest carbon polluters mostly due to deforestation, Brazil has become a major player in climate negotiations after years of rejecting such talks and saying the onus was entirely on rich countries to cut emissions.

Its gesture was seen as a possible way out of the deadlock in preparatory talks for Copenhagen that has arisen because rich countries have been slow to come forward with the billions of dollars needed to help poor nations tackle their rising emissions.

“All countries in the world have set December 2009 as a deadline for reaching an international agreement, and Brazil’s timing shows that this deadline works,” Danish climate minister Connie Hedegaard, whose country will host the negotiations, said in a statement.

“We are seeing more and more countries coming forward with climate plans.”

Many industrialized nations say they will not commit to handing funding to the developing world without getting concrete pledges of emissions cuts in return.

Dhaka, Manila and Jakarta are topping a WWF ranking of the climate vulnerability of 11 major cities in Asia

As Heads of States gather in Singapore for the APEC summit, WWF says that developed and developing countries must cooperate to prepare these cities for a brutal climate future, highlighting that their vulnerability is yet another compelling reason for a fair, ambitious and binding deal at the Copenhagen Climate Summit in December.

According to Mega-Stress For Mega-Cities, many of the cities analyzed are extremely exposed to threats such as storms and flooding, while huge numbers of people and assets at stake result in worrying levels of socio-economic sensitivity. At the same time, the cities often lack capacity to protect themselves from devastating impacts.

“Climate change is already shattering cities across developing Asia and will be even more brutal in the future”, said Kim Carstensen, Leader of the WWF Global Climate Initiative. “These cities are vulnerable and need urgent help to adapt, in order to protect the lives of millions of citizens, a massive amount of assets, and their large contributions to the national GDP.”

“The APEC summit this week in Singapore provides an opportunity to exploit the true win-win potential offered by low carbon growth strategies for countries in the Asia Pacific region, with benefits for both the economy and the climate.”

The WWF report covers 11 urban centers across Asia, all located in coastal areas or river deltas. Following Dhaka (9 out of 10 possible vulnerability points), other cities at high risk are Manila and Jakarta (8 each), Calcutta and Phnom Penh (7 each), Ho Chi Minh City and Shanghai (6 each), Bangkok (5), and Kuala Lumpur, Hong Kong and Singapore (4 each).

“Asia is urbanizing rapidly, and we can be certain that urban areas will be crucial battlegrounds in the fight against climate change”, said Carstensen.

“Cities are responsible for most of the world’s energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, but they are also pioneers when it comes to developing innovative solutions. We can’t afford to surrender them to climate change. Instead, we must empower them to become change agents and protect both rural and urban areas from devastating impacts.”

The report also includes rankings for sub-categories such as environmental exposure, socio-economic sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Poorer cities often lack sufficient adaptive capacity and generally rank higher in terms of their overall vulnerability.

“Leaders in hotspots of danger like Dhaka, Manila or Jakarta need urgent support from their counterparts in the industrialized world. Effective near-term and long-term adaptation will depend on financial support, technology cooperation, and capacity building”, said Carstensen.

According to WWF, this week’s APEC summit in Singapore provides leaders from developed and developing countries around the Pacific with a great opportunity to boost cooperation on adaptation to climate impacts as well as low carbon economic growth.

“Now we are only a couple of weeks away from the Copenhagen Climate Summit, but so far leaders have failed to clear the way for success next month in Denmark”, said Carstensen.

“APEC is the last chance before Copenhagen for leaders from a number of key countries to show that they really want to protect the planet from climate change.”

source:WWF

Japan greenhouse emissions fell 6.2% last year

Japan’s greenhouse gas pollution fell 6.2 percent in the last financial year, the government said on Wednesday, confirming market views that the worst recession in decades largely contributed to emission cuts.

Emissions in the first year of Japan’s Kyoto Protocol obligations totaled 1.286 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent, compared with a revised 1.371 billion tonnes in the previous year ended in March 2008, a record high.

The 2008/09 figure is approaching the Kyoto goal for the world’s fifth biggest emitter of 1.186 billion tonnes a year.

The government and companies have bought hundreds of millions of tonnes of emissions offsets, helping the country meet its 2008-12 Kyoto target in deals worth billions of dollars at current prices.

“The figure suggests we’re currently at levels sufficiently (low) enough to achieve the target,” said Yasuo Takahashi, who heads the environment ministry’s climate change policy division.

“But we’re not saying that we no longer need to carry out the emission-cut plans,” he said at a news conference after the data was released. “2008/2009 was an unusual year.”

With deflation expected in coming years, there seems little risk of Japan not meeting its Kyoto goals.

The Bank of Japan said in a report last month that Japan will experience three years of deflation, forecasting the economy to contract another 3.2 percent in fiscal 2009/2010 before recovering in the following two years.

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